The Next World War, 1914 & 2014 Compared
by Admiral Wook, Lord Bodwyn of Jutland, RN [retd]
The question glaringly omitted in the above is just what kind of wild ideas may various COMPETING American military staffs be trying to cook up to ‘pre-empt’ China?
There was — is — plenty that is NOT rational in the political & military equation & so we are not out of any woods now.
The weasel word in ANY case you can name is ‘rational’:
Unfortunately, this whole synopsis now HAS been blown up by Alan Zimm in his The Attack On Pearl Harbor (2011); Admiral Yamamoto therein is revealed as a gambler on a roll & akin to a corporate CEO who gambled the comapny’s whole account on derivatives & got lucky…for awhile.
Alan D Zimm in any case deserves close attention, not least in the present context.
Zimm is a member of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory’s Principal Professional Staff, serving as Section Leader in the Aviation Systems and Advanced Concepts Group. He received a BS in physics from UCLA, a MS in Operations Research from The Naval Postgraduate School, and a doctorate from the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California, with a concentration in Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning.
A former naval officer, he served as a nuclear power qualified surface warfare officer with over fourteen years of sea duty in carriers, cruisers, destroyers and hydrofoils. He was the executive officer aboard USS Pegasus (PHM-1) during her record setting run through the Panama Canal, a record likely to hold up since the Canal no longer allows hydrofoils to transit while foilborne. He completed his service as a Commander, USN.
At APL, Dr Zimm has performed and led studies of the J-UCAS in maritime defense, Offensive Anti-Surface Warfare Analysis of Alternatives, DD(X) design trade studies, Advanced Gun System trade studies and effectiveness analyses, trade studies employing Naval Surface Fire Support with guns, aircraft, field artillery and missiles in an expeditionary warfare context, studies to define and evaluate characteristics of surface-launched anti-ship missiles, studies on Maneuver Warfare doctrine, and mathematical modeling of economic social systems.
He has published extensively, with over 90 books and journal articles in the fields of naval and military history, decision theory, chaos and organizational theory, military strategy and theory, and computer combat modeling and simulations. He published an award-winning computer simulation modeling World War II naval surface warfare. His most recent book is Attack on Pearl Harbor: Strategy, Combat, Myths, Deceptions (2011).
Dr Zimm received the 1999 Arleigh Burke Award from the U. S. Naval Institute. He was awarded a Hafstad fellowship in 2002 and a Janney fellowship in 1998, and was awarded a Reining Award Distinguished Citation from the University of Southern California in 2003. Dr. Zimm is an honorary life member of the United States Naval Institute and a member of the Military Operations Research Society.
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[31 July 2014]